This post, and many from me in the future, will be analysis but also statistically based. The Indians front office and many others in baseball highly value advanced statistics when it comes to player evaluation. Ever since the movie Moneyball was released, fans have been exposed to advanced statistics a little more. I won't bore you with the details, but I am a strong believer in a mixture of advanced stats and the actual eye test when it comes to player evaluation.
When I was about 12 years old, my Uncle gave me The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract as a gift for Christmas. The near 1,000-page behemoth of a book gives information for each decade since the 1870's... and attempts to rank each player who has ever played the game based on a system called win shares, which is derived from runs created. A quick excerpt from the book helps to describe how the system works:
"A hitter's job is not to compile a high batting average. A hitter's job is not to maintain a high on-base percentage, not to create a high slugging percentage, not to get 200 hits. A hitter's job is not to hit home runs. Some hitters might hit home runs as the primary part of their job, but only some hitters, and even those only some of the time; with a runner on second and two out, no manager wants any hitter up there looking for a home run."
So what is the job itself?
"The job itself is to create runs," James says."
James describes the formula as: ((Hits+Walks) * Total bases)/(AB + BB's)
Running this formula for any team since 1920, and it will come within 5% of the actual runs scored.
So without any further ado, let's take a look at the Cleveland Indians offensive numbers, and I'll give a bit of analysis on their performance thus far.
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| Santana is mashing the ball right now posting a league-leading .389 BA. |
Catcher: Carlos Santana- 20 Games, .389 Average (leads MLB)/ .476 OBP.
Runs Created: 24.8
Analysis: Santana is one of the hottest hitters in baseball right now. Leading the team in most offensive categories, including batting average, on-base percentage, and body-fat.
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| Nick Swisher wants the Indians to be relevant in baseball again. |
Runs Created: 12.8
Analysis: Swisher, one of the Tribe's biggest off-season acquisitions, hasn't hit as well as he probably has wanted to thus far. Swisher has great discipline at the plate though and leads the team with 15 BB's. Watch for the Swish to raise his average a bit.
Second Base: Jason Kipnis- 17 Games, .200 AVG/ .269 OBP
Runs Created: 5.5
Analysis: Sad part about Kipnis' line, is that it is actually sort of exciting to see his average at .200. Kip has hit quite a bit better the last two games (3-for-9, with a HR and a BB)... raising his BA 20 points.
Third Base: Lonnie Chisenhall- 19 Games, .222 AVG/ .253 OBP
Runs Created: 7.1
Analysis: Chisenhall has been given the starting role at 3B to start the season, but I wouldn't be surprised if his leash isn't too long. The knock on Lonnie has always been his plate discipline and at this point Chisenhall has been as bad as ever. He has 18 Strikeouts to only 2 Walks. Chisenhall has to improve his plate discipline, or he may not have a spot in the Majors.
Short Stop: Asdrubal Cabrera-22 Games, .226 AVG/ .286 OBP
Runs Created: 8.9
Analysis: Cabrera, a notorious quick starter, is off to one of his slowest starts in his MLB career. Cabrera has hit a hot streak though as of late. Cabrera owns a 9-game hitting streak, going 13-for-33 during that span, including 8 for his last 16.
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| Michael Brantley has performed well in the lead-off spot during Bourn's absence, hitting .286 on the year. |
Runs Created: 12.4
Analysis: Brantley has never been known to draw a ton of walks (he does have 8 so far this season) but his smooth stroke at the plate coupled with his ability to use the whole field as a hitter has made him one of the most consistent Indians at the plate thus far this season.
Center Field: Michael Bourn- 10 Games, .333 AVG/ .375 OBP
Runs Created: 9.8 (But has played vastly less than the rest of the team)
Analysis: Bourn has been everything the team has asked for and more. Although one of his key stats that isn't measured in the original Runs Created is Stolen Bases. Bourn, however, had only stolen 1 base during his ten-game stint. Stay tuned for a more in depth article on Bourn tomorrow when Danny Wisard will talk about his upcoming rehab stint.
Right Field- Drew Stubbs-23 Games, .241 AVG/ .307 OBP
Runs Created: 8.7
Analysis: Stubbs came over in the Shin-Soo Choo/Trevor Bauer deal and he has been exactly what the Tribe expected so far. Stubbs is dangerous as a nine-hole hitter, but expect him to post similar numbers throughout the year. If Stubbs could shorten his swing and bring down the K numbers (Team leading 27 K's to only 8 BBs), it would be helpful, but that's what Reds fans were frustrated about all those years as well.
DH: Mark Reynolds- .301 AVG/.368 OBP.
Runs Created: 20.3
Analysis: One of the lesser-hailed Free Agent signings of the off-season, Reynolds has to be one of the biggest surprises on the team and maybe in the league so far. Reynolds has belted 8 bombs and the biggest key, although we all expected him to strike out a ton, Reynolds has knocked in as many runs as times he has struck out! (22 RBIs and 22 Ks). The hot start is encouraging, but Reynolds will not continue to hit .300 this season, but if he can continue hitting HR's, the Indians will be happy with their investment in the slugger.
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| Yes, we are a professional baseball team. |
| 1. Carlos Santana | 24.76 |
| 2. Mark Reynolds | 20.32 |
| 3. Nick Swisher | 12.84 |
| 4. Michael Brantley | 12.36 |
| 5. Ryan Raburn | 11.48 |
| 6. Michael Bourn | 9.77 |
| 7. Asdrubal Cabrera | 8.86 |
| 8. Drew Stubbs | 8.69 |
| 9. Lonnie Chisenhall | 7.05 |
| 10. Jason Kipnis | 5.45 |
| 11. Mike Aviles | 5.32 |
| 12. Jason Giambi | 4.06 |
| 13. Yan Gomes | 3 |
Take these early numbers for what they are worth! I'll leave you with three main thoughts I gathered from crunching the numbers!
1. Recent offensive explosion: All in all, the Indians offense has been, for the most part, what we expected it to be. It is still baffling to see the team go out and score 10,9 and 14 in the past three games respectively, yet we've seen the same basic line-ups get shutout this season as well. The team has scored 120 runs on the year, which is good for 14th in the league. Will the team settle into some consistency? Reynolds and Santana will both come back to earth, but if Kipnis and Cabrera can come out of their early season slumps, the Tribe could be in good shape moving into late-summer.
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| Who are these guys?! |
3. Bourn Supremacy: No advanced statistics here, but this team just misses Michael Bourn. Credit is to be given to Michael Brantley, who has stepped up admirably in the one-hole, but as Tom Hamilton mentioned on the broadcast tonight, Bourn just brings a different dimension to the line-up. Stay tuned to the blog in order to get some details on Bourn's upcoming rehab assignments and about when we can expect him back at the top of the lineup. Bourn came off the DL Tuesday.
Tomorrow we will take a look at the numbers for the pitchers. Good night!
