Mark Reynolds: Who is this guy?

How does a career .237 batter who strikes out 32.3% of the time in his career have a near .300 batting average right now?

That's the basis of this article and a question I've been asking myself for the past week or so.  Who is this Mark Reynolds guy?  The Indians signed the former Oriole to a 1-year, 6-million dollar deal in the off-season.  Reynolds has hi
t 40+ HR's before, but everyone knows that he has a chance to lead the league in strike outs every single season.

Just digest these numbers: Reynolds has struck out 204, 223, 211 and 196 times from 2008-2011.  Those numbers are baffling, but taken as raw data don't mean very much.  Let's take it a little further and look at his strikeout percentages (or the amount of times he struck out per plate appearance) since 2008.

This chart gives the vital information for the analysis that follows, so you can kind of make your own analysis as well:

Mark Reynolds	BB %	K%	HR%	AVG.	Contact %
2008	10.44%	33.28%	4.57%	0.239	56.28%
2009	11.48%	33.69%	6.65%	0.260	54.83%
2010	13.93%	35.40%	5.37%	0.198	50.67%
2011	12.10%	31.61%	5.97%	0.221	56.29%
2012	13.57%	29.55%	4.28%	0.221	56.88%
2013	10.83%	24.17%	8.33%	0.291	65.00%
Career	11.82%	32.30%	5.36%	0.237	55.88%

Before I move any further into my theories on what has happened to Mark Reynolds this year, let me first point out that these 2013 numbers are only through 120 plate appearances.  Reynolds has averaged around 600 Plate appearances per season in this sample set, so keep in mind that his numbers are only about 1/5 through the season so far.  There is time for him to regress back to the mean, but will it happen?

I love advanced statistics as much as anyone, but I have watched nearly every game this season and with that being said, my first comment is that Reynolds has seemed to vastly improve his approach with two-strikes. In this case, I believe that I've seen the improvement on the field and not only statistically. Reynolds' contact % (or the amount of at bats that he puts the ball in play) is 65% this season. Compare that to his career rate of 56% and you've seen the results.  Good things happen when Reynolds puts the ball in play.

So what are these numbers really telling us?  Reynolds has reduced his K percentage every year since 2010. Does this mean as a 29-year old, he is really improving as a batter? My answer is yes and no.  I would predict that Reynolds will finish the year with a lower K% than he did in 2012 (also marking a career-high), but I don't think he can sustain the 24% figure he sits at right now. Only time will tell, but his .291 Batting Average is over 50 points higher than his career mark.

Reynolds is also hitting bombs at a pace that, in my opinion, is not sustainable. Reynolds currently leads the AL with 10 HRs already! It will be interesting to watch these numbers as the season progresses. Reynolds has a career HR rate of 5.36%, but this season he has seen a nearly 3% increase!  This all comes from his approach at the plate and his improved ability to put the ball in play. No one can argue the impact that Reynolds has been able to have on the Tribe thus far, but there is plenty debate to be had about the future for the 29-year old slugger.  Looking deeper into advanced statistics, Reynolds has created 24 runs.  Which ranks 2nd on the team so far, trailing only the red-hot Carlos Santana. (If you need a reminder on what Runs Created is, check out my first advanced stat post here).

Will Reynolds regress back to his averages? Or is this a career year in the prime of a young first-basemen? I believe he will see a slight regression in his numbers and although I believe he will have one of his best seasons, he won't end the year hitting .300.  40 HRs is possible though, as Reynolds is currently on pace for 52!  What do you think? Make sure and comment or respond.

Miss last night's game? Check out Danny's post-game review of last night's pitcher's duel.