Tuesday, June 4, 2013

Cleveland Indians Offense through May

Hello, all! It's time now, once again, for your Indians' offense update for the month.  After April, the tribe
were playing well and there were a lot of players who were posting career-high rates.  Have they kept it up? The Indians are losers of eight of their last 11, but let's take a closer look into some of the more advanced statistics. If you need a reference to last month's post, you can check it out here.

The Indians are currently 30-27, but sit only one game behind the AL-central leading Detroit Tigers. Let's go position-by-position and assess the team through two months.

Carlos Santana: According to the Runs Created advanced statistic, Santana has been the most valuable offensive player in the Tribe lineup for the first two months of the season. Santana, however, has seen his batting average fall nearly 100-points since he was leading the AL about one month ago. Santana is still very valuable though, reaching base in nearly 40% of his plate appearances.
Runs Created: 35.5

Nick Swisher: Swisher has pretty much performed as he has been expected to. Creating over 29 runs (which ranks third on the team).  Swisher also has good plate discipline and has posted a respectable BB-rate that ranks second on the team behind Santana.
Runs Created: 29.9

Jason Kipnis: Kipnis has had a roller-coaster ride of a season thus far. He started out on fire in the beginning of May, but has since cooled off as his cumulative batting average on the year rests at .242. Kipnis has still been valuable though, creating 26.7 runs and slugging 8 home runs. Kipnis' low contact-rate and career-high strikeout rate have held him back. Kipnis must become more patient at the plate and stop watching strike three go by if he wants to be effective in the top of the lineup for the tribe.
Runs Created: 26.7


Mike Aviles: Aviles is about to be thrust into the everyday role as starting shortstop in light of Asdrubal Cabrera heading to the DL. Aviles has already played in 39 of the teams' 57 games, so we have an idea of what to expect from the veteran. Aviles has the lowest rate of striking out on the team, but he also has the lowest walk rate. Aviles is great at putting the ball in play and has had a decent share of luck, contributing to a .283 batting average. Aviles has created 14.5 runs, but if you extrapolate that to make him an everyday ballplayer, he would be outperforming Drew Stubbs and Lonnie Chisenhall at the dish.
Runs Created: 14.5


Asdrubal Cabrera: Cabrera just recently went down with a quad injury that has been bothering him all season. Up until that point he was starting to get back into mid-season form. Although Cabrera is striking out at a nearly career-high rate, he has still been able to contribute to the Indians' top ten offense. Cabrera's .254 average leaves much to be desired, but Cleveland fans are just hoping Cabby will be back soon.
Runs Created: 26.8


Michael Brantley: Brantley leads the Indians in batting average and has been flirting with the .300 mark for most of the season. Brantley doesn't get a lot of extra-base hits and he does not walk or strikeout very often and his advanced stats are similar to Mike Aviles in a lot of ways. Brantley has still been consistent as Francona has moved him all over the lineup, Brantley ranks sixth on the team in runs created.

Runs Created: 26.5


Michael Bourn: It's more difficult to decipher Bourn's stats because he missed a large chunk of time due to injury. Extrapolate his numbers and he has been the second-most valuable player on the team offensively. Bourn has struck out a little more this season than he typically has in past years (23% of plate appearances this year), but his speed and contact-hitting ability has been very valuable to Cleveland.
Runs Created: 20.5


Drew Stubbs: Stubbs has been having some issues seeing the ball at the plate lately. Notorious already for his high strikeout rates each season, Stubbs has fallen deep into a slump and cumulatively has been one of the  least valuable offensive players on the squad. Stubbs leads the team and is among the league leaders in strikeout percentage (31%) and is hitting a mere .225, but he'll probably turn it around and in the nine-hole the Indians like his speed and defensive abilities.
Runs Created: 18.2


Jason Giambi: The great Giambino has been on quite a hot streak lately. Just when fans and writers were
beginning to think that Giambi's time as a major-leaguer was over, Giambi really amped up his power numbers and helped the Tribe with a couple of big homers in the last week. Giambi has actually led the team in home-run rate, launching a bomb in 6.3% of his plate appearances. 64% of Giambi's hits this year have been of the extra-base variety (easily best on the team) and if Giambi could keep up this pace playing everyday he'd be among the Tribe's nine best batters. Check out this take on why Giambi matters by Jake Mowery. Oh, Jake, he's also hitting bombs again, so that's nice too.
Runs Created: 9.4


Yan Gomes: Gomes' numbers at the plate have likely been an anomaly, but Indians' fans have to be excited with what they have seen from the young player.  Gomes has knocked a walk-off home run and has hit home runs in 6% of his plate appearances, good for second best on the team. I won't even begin to mention how good Gomes has been defensively behind the dish. Gomes has played at a pace that ranks him as a top-five hitter on the team.
Runs Created: 14.2


Mark Reynolds: Reynolds is known for leading the league in strikeouts most seasons. This year he was off to a mega-hot start though, hitting .300 at one point earlier in the season. Reynolds has regressed back to the mean though as of late, with his strikeout rate rising back up to 27.4%. If Reynolds can come out of his funk, it will truly help the tribe get back to their winning ways. When Reynolds was slugging the ball earlier, it helped them have a lot of success, winning 18 of 22 at one point. Reynolds' home-run rate has fallen as well (to 5.9%) as he has gone through a power drought lately, but still, one must credit him for his cumulative numbers, ranking as the Tribe's second-best hitter on the team so far this year. Please check out this article to take a look at Reynolds' numbers from a historical perspective.
Runs Created: 30.4


Overall team rankings per 162 games:


Player RC/162
Carlos Santana 110.76
Michael Bourn 97.76
Yan Gomes 95.83
Nick Swisher 95.07
Jason Kipnis 90.16
Ryan Raburn 89.82
Mark Reynolds 89.6
Asdrubal Cabrera 81.98
Michael Brantley 78.04
Jason Giambi 72.73
Mike Aviles 60.08
Drew Stubbs 52.63
Lonnie Chisenhall 48.75

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